Monday, October 30, 2006

Year 2070


http://www.box.net/public/1io86o9776
(powerpoint show year2070.pps 464 kB)

"This is the year 2070
I have just turned 50
But I look and feel 85
I suffer from serious kidney problems
because I do not drink enough water
I am afraid I do not have enough time left to live
I am one of the oldest people in this society"

Article published in the magazine Cronicos de los Tiempos, April 2002

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7 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yale says:
What is your perception about OZ rainfall over the last ten years??? does it match the data from BOM???

Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:53:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can answer that one, for those of you who don't know I'm currently
doing my thesis in climatology in the area of changing temperature and
rainfall extreme events. In my thesis I am chiefly looking at rainfall using the Bureau of Meteorology's data over the last 100 years.

Some basic trends of annual rainfall and autumn, winter, summer and spring rainfall that I have produced using data from the last 100 years within our region (that I have defined as Victoria, Tasmania and the Southeastern corner of SA)show lower rainfall is prevelant for the past 10 years, especially in autumn for our region. The other interesting point of note is that recently, while we may have had years of around average rainfall, we have had no years of above average and well above average rainfall that are prevelant throughout the middle of the 20th Century.

However, I would like to add that while climate change and increasing
population will most likely exacerbate the problem of water scarcity, this drought WILL break and I do think that the powerpoint
presentation was a little bit of an alarmist view. Droughts are a
natural cycle of the climate and in fact there was a drought rather
similar in severity (though not quite as bad) that was around in the
late 1800's early 1900's (which included the Federation drought).

This drought is simply part of the natural cycle of things BUT please
do not become complacent as it is projected that droughts like these
will become more frequent and intense in the future. For example, the work that I am looking at now is saying that the severity of a drought that we define as a "One in 20 year drought" will become a "One in 5 year drought" by 2070 i.e. a drought that we could have expected to occur once every 20 years will occur once every 5 years around 2070.

Ailie

Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:56:00 PM  
Blogger Tony Forster said...

I thought the ppt a bit over the top on water but when taken in the context of all the impacts of climate change, a bit of scaremongering is appropriate.

Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:58:00 PM  
Blogger Tony Forster said...

Thanks to Yale for the press release http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20041108hs.shtml

Monday, 8 November 2004
MEDIA RELEASE - HEAD OFFICE
Melbourne's rainfall trend: No news is good news?
Today's climate news for Melbourne is ... the city's rainfall average has not changed in any significant way over 150 years.
According to Dr Harvey Stern, head of the climate section in the Victorian Regional Office of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, there has been little in the way of an overall trend away from the average rainfall of 638.8 millimetres. Dr Stern and his colleagues recently re-examined the records in search of a potential trend.

Yale says:
Hello again Aillie and every one.
Some more observations as opposed to predictions for the mix.
what is your perception in relation to Melb rainfall over the last 150 years
??? does it match the data from BOM.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006 9:28:00 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

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Friday, November 10, 2006 6:08:00 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

*find :(

Friday, November 10, 2006 6:12:00 PM  
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Sunday, November 12, 2006 9:43:00 PM  

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